A novel biomarker of interleukin 6 activity and clinical and cognitive outcomes in depression.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory cytokines like interleukin-6 (IL-6) are implicated in depression, but most studies have hitherto focused on circulating levels of IL-6 rather than its activity. IL-6 trans-signalling is thought to be responsible for most of the pathogenic effects of IL-6 and is implicated in autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis. We tested the association between a multi-protein-derived measure of IL-6 trans-signalling and clinical and cognitive outcomes in patients with depression. We hypothesised that this novel measure of IL-6 activity/bioavailability would be associated with clinical and cognitive measures previously reported to be associated with inflammation in depression. METHODS: Using data from 86 patients with International Classification of Diseases-10 diagnosis of depression, we calculated a ratio score representing IL-6 activity/bioavailability using serum IL-6, soluble IL-6 receptor (sIL-6R), and soluble glycoprotein 130 levels. We tested the relationship of this novel biomarker with 12 cytokines using correlation analyses and with cognitive and clinical measures using multivariable linear regression, following z-transformation of all immune exposures. RESULTS: The novel measure of IL-6 activity/bioavailability was correlated with IL-6 (r=0.42, P=0.03), C-reactive protein (CRP) (r=0.42, P=0.03), sIL-6R (r=0.91, P<0.01), and tumour necrosis factor alpha (r=0.43, P=0.03). The IL-6 activity/bioavailability measure was associated with higher somatic symptoms of depression (ß=1.09; 95% CI 0.30, 1.88; PFDR=0.01), fatigue (ß=4.34; 95% CI 1.26, 7.42; PFDR=0.03), depression severity (ß=3.06; 95% CI 0.71, 5.40; P=0.02), poorer quality of life (ß=-0.07; 95% CI -0.13, -0.01; PFDR=0.045), and decreased psychomotor speed (ß=-5.46; 95% CI -9.09, -1.84; PFDR=0.01),. There was little evidence of associations with reaction time, anhedonia, anxiety, emotional perception and recall, executive function, and sustained attention (Ps>0.05). The effect estimates for the associations of the novel measure with depression outcomes were comparable to those for individual immune proteins (i.e., IL-6, CRP, sIL-6R). CONCLUSION: A novel multi-protein-derived measure of IL-6 activity/bioavailability shows robust associations with various inflammation-related clinical and cognitive outcomes in depression and performs well in comparison to single inflammatory proteins. We need replication of these findings in other samples, experiments for mechanistic validity of this novel biomarker, and clinical studies to assess its usefulness as a marker of illness risk and prognosis.

Predicting treatment resistance from first-episode psychosis using routinely collected clinical information.

Around a quarter of people who experience a first episode of psychosis (FEP) will develop treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS), but there are currently no established clinically useful methods to predict this from baseline. We aimed to explore the predictive potential for clozapine use as a proxy for TRS of routinely collected, objective biomedical predictors at FEP onset, and to externally validate the model in a separate clinical sample of people with FEP. We developed and externally validated a forced-entry logistic regression risk prediction Model fOr cloZApine tReaTment, or MOZART, to predict up to 8-year risk of clozapine use from FEP using routinely recorded information including age, sex, ethnicity, triglycerides, alkaline phosphatase levels, and lymphocyte counts. We also produced a least-absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) based model, additionally including neutrophil count, smoking status, body mass index, and random glucose levels. The models were developed using data from two UK psychosis early intervention services (EIS) and externally validated in another UK EIS. Model performance was assessed via discrimination and calibration. We developed the models in 785 patients, and validated externally in 1,110 patients. Both models predicted clozapine use well at internal validation (MOZART: C 0.70; 95%CI 0.63,0.76; LASSO: 0.69; 95%CI 0.63,0.77). At external validation, discrimination performance reduced (MOZART: 0.63; 0.58,0.69; LASSO: 0.64; 0.58,0.69) but recovered after re-estimation of the lymphocyte predictor (C: 0.67; 0.62,0.73). Calibration plots showed good agreement between observed and predicted risk in the forced-entry model. We also present a decision-curve analysis and an online data visualisation tool. The use of routinely collected clinical information including blood-based biomarkers taken at FEP onset can help to predict the individual risk of clozapine use, and should be considered equally alongside other potentially useful information such as symptom scores in large-scale efforts to predict psychiatric outcomes.

Protocol for the Psychosis Immune Mechanism Stratified Medicine (PIMS) trial: a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of single-dose tocilizumab in patients with psychosis.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence suggests a potentially causal role of interleukin 6 (IL-6), a pleiotropic cytokine that generally promotes inflammation, in the pathogenesis of psychosis. However, no interventional studies in patients with psychosis, stratified using inflammatory markers, have been conducted to assess the therapeutic potential of targeting IL-6 in psychosis and to elucidate potential mechanism of effect. Tocilizumab is a humanised monoclonal antibody targeting the IL-6 receptor to inhibit IL-6 signalling, licensed in the UK for treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. The primary objective of this study is to test whether IL-6 contributes to the pathogenesis of first episode psychosis and to examine potential mechanisms by which IL-6 affects psychotic symptoms. A secondary objective is to examine characteristics of inflammation-associated psychosis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A proof-of-concept study employing a randomised, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled design testing the effect of IL-6 inhibition on anhedonia in patients with psychosis. Approximately 60 participants with a diagnosis of schizophrenia and related psychotic disorders (ICD-10 codes F20, F22, F25, F28, F29) with evidence of low-grade inflammation (IL-6≥0.7 pg/mL) will receive either one intravenous infusion of tocilizumab (4.0 mg/kg; max 800 mg) or normal saline. Psychiatric measures and blood samples will be collected at baseline, 7, 14 and 28 days post infusion. Cognitive and neuroimaging data will be collected at baseline and 14 days post infusion. In addition, approximately 30 patients with psychosis without evidence of inflammation (IL-6<0.7 pg/mL) and 30 matched healthy controls will be recruited to complete identical baseline assessments to allow for comparison of the characteristic features of inflammation-associated psychosis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study is sponsored by the University of Bristol and has been approved by the Cambridge East Research Ethics Committee (reference: 22/EE/0010; IRAS project ID: 301682). Study findings will be published in peer-review journals. Findings will also be disseminated by scientific presentation and other means. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN23256704.

Association between inflammation and cognition: Triangulation of evidence using a population-based cohort and Mendelian randomization analyses.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation is associated with cognitive functioning and dementia in older adults, but whether inflammation is related to cognitive functioning in youth and whether these associations are causal remains unclear. METHODS: In a population-based cohort (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children; ALSPAC), we investigated cross-sectional associations of inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], Interleukin-6 [IL-6] and Glycoprotein acetyls [GlycA]) with measures of cold (working memory, response inhibition) and hot (emotion recognition) cognition at age 24 (N = 3,305 in multiple imputation models). Furthermore, we conducted one-sample and two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to examine potential causal effects of genetically-proxied inflammatory markers (CRP, GlycA, IL-6, IL-6 receptor, soluble IL-6 receptor) on cognitive measures (above) and on general cognitive ability. RESULTS: In the ALSPAC cohort, there was limited evidence of an association between standardised inflammatory markers and standardised cognitive measures at age 24 after adjusting for potential confounders (N = 3,305; beta range, -0.02 [95 % confidence interval (CI) -0.06 to 0.02, p = 0.27] to 0.02 [95 % CI -0.02 to 0.05, p = 0.33]). Similarly, we found limited evidence of potential effects of 1-unit increase in genetically-proxied inflammatory markers on standardised working memory, emotion recognition or response inhibition in one-sample MR using ALSPAC data (beta range, -0.73 [95 % CI -2.47 to 1.01, p = 0.41] to 0.21 [95 % CI -1.42 to 1.84, p = 0.80]; or on standardised general cognitive ability in two-sample MR using the latest Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) datasets (inverse-variance weighted beta range, -0.02 [95 % CI -0.05 to 0.01, p = 0.12] to 0.03 [95 % CI -0.01 to 0.07, p = 0.19]). CONCLUSIONS: Our MR findings do not provide strong evidence of a potential causal effect of inflammatory markers (CRP, IL-6, IL-6 receptor, GlycA) on the cognitive functions examined here. Given the large confidence intervals in the one-sample MR, larger GWAS of specific cognitive measures are needed to enable well-powered MR analyses to investigate whether inflammation causally influences specific cognitive domains.

Therapeutic potential of IL6R blockade for the treatment of sepsis and sepsis-related death: A Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is characterised by dysregulated, life-threatening immune responses, which are thought to be driven by cytokines such as interleukin 6 (IL-6). Genetic variants in IL6R known to down-regulate IL-6 signalling are associated with improved Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, a finding later confirmed in randomised trials of IL-6 receptor antagonists (IL6RAs). We hypothesised that blockade of IL6R could also improve outcomes in sepsis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in and near IL6R to evaluate the likely causal effects of IL6R blockade on sepsis (primary outcome), sepsis severity, other infections, and COVID-19 (secondary outcomes). We weighted SNPs by their effect on CRP and combined results across them in inverse variance weighted meta-analysis, proxying the effect of IL6RA. Our outcomes were measured in UK Biobank, FinnGen, the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI), and the GenOSept and GainS consortium. We performed several sensitivity analyses to test assumptions of our methods, including utilising variants around CRP and gp130 in a similar analysis. In the UK Biobank cohort (N = 486,484, including 11,643 with sepsis), IL6R blockade was associated with a decreased risk of our primary outcome, sepsis (odds ratio (OR) = 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 0.96, per unit of natural log-transformed CRP decrease). The size of this effect increased with severity, with larger effects on 28-day sepsis mortality (OR = 0.74; 95% CI 0.47 to 1.15); critical care admission with sepsis (OR = 0.48, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.78) and critical care death with sepsis (OR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.98). Similar associations were seen with severe respiratory infection: OR for pneumonia in critical care 0.69 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.97) and for sepsis survival in critical care (OR = 0.22; 95% CI 0.04 to 1.31) in the GainS and GenOSept consortium, although this result had a large degree of imprecision. We also confirm the previously reported protective effect of IL6R blockade on severe COVID-19 (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.84) in the COVID-19 HGI, which was of similar magnitude to that seen in sepsis. Sensitivity analyses did not alter our primary results. These results are subject to the limitations and assumptions of MR, which in this case reflects interpretation of these SNP effects as causally acting through blockade of IL6R, and reflect lifetime exposure to IL6R blockade, rather than the effect of therapeutic IL6R blockade. CONCLUSIONS: IL6R blockade is causally associated with reduced incidence of sepsis. Similar but imprecisely estimated results supported a causal effect also on sepsis related mortality and critical care admission with sepsis. These effects are comparable in size to the effect seen in severe COVID-19, where IL-6 receptor antagonists were shown to improve survival. These data suggest that a randomised trial of IL-6 receptor antagonists in sepsis should be considered.

Longitudinal association between cardiovascular risk factors and depression in young people: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Depression is a common and serious mental illness that begins early in life. An association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and subsequent depression is clear in adults. We examined associations between individual CVD risk factors and depression in young people. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases from inception to 1 January 2020. We extracted data from cohort studies assessing the longitudinal association between CVD risk factors [body mass index (BMI), smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein] and depression, measured using a validated tool in individuals with mean age of 24 years or younger. Random effect meta-analysis was used to combine effect estimates from individual studies, including odds ratio (OR) for depression and standardised mean difference for depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Based on meta-analysis of seven studies, comprising 15 753 participants, high BMI was associated with subsequent depression [pooled OR 1.61; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-2.14; I2 = 31%]. Based on meta-analysis of eight studies, comprising 30 539 participants, smoking was associated with subsequent depression (pooled OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.36-2.20; I2 = 74%). Low, but not high, SBP was associated with an increased risk of depression (pooled OR 3.32; 95% CI 1.68-6.55; I2 = 0%), although this was based on a small pooled high-risk sample of 893 participants. Generalisability may be limited as most studies were based in North America or Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting childhood/adolescent smoking and obesity may be important for the prevention of both CVD and depression across the lifespan. Further research on other CVD risk factors including blood pressure and cholesterol in young people is required.

The psychosis metabolic risk calculator (PsyMetRiC) for young people with psychosis: International external validation and site-specific recalibration in two independent European samples.

Background: Cardiometabolic dysfunction is common in young people with psychosis. Recently, the Psychosis Metabolic Risk Calculator (PsyMetRiC) was developed and externally validated in the UK, predicting up-to six-year risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) from routinely collected data. The full-model includes age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, smoking status, prescription of metabolically-active antipsychotic medication, high-density lipoprotein, and triglyceride concentrations; the partial-model excludes biochemical predictors. Methods: To move toward a future internationally-useful tool, we externally validated PsyMetRiC in two independent European samples. We used data from the PsyMetab (Lausanne, Switzerland) and PAFIP (Cantabria, Spain) cohorts, including participants aged 16-35y without MetS at baseline who had 1-6y follow-up. Predictive performance was assessed primarily via discrimination (C-statistic), calibration (calibration plots), and decision curve analysis. Site-specific recalibration was considered. Findings: We included 1024 participants (PsyMetab n=558, male=62%, outcome prevalence=19%, mean follow-up=2.48y; PAFIP n=466, male=65%, outcome prevalence=14%, mean follow-up=2.59y). Discrimination was better in the full- compared with partial-model (PsyMetab=full-model C=0.73, 95% C.I., 0.68-0.79, partial-model C=0.68, 95% C.I., 0.62-0.74; PAFIP=full-model C=0.72, 95% C.I., 0.66-0.78; partial-model C=0.66, 95% C.I., 0.60-0.71). As expected, calibration plots revealed varying degrees of miscalibration, which recovered following site-specific recalibration. PsyMetRiC showed net benefit in both new cohorts, more so after recalibration. Interpretation: The study provides evidence of PsyMetRiC's generalizability in Western Europe, although further local and international validation studies are required. In future, PsyMetRiC could help clinicians internationally to identify young people with psychosis who are at higher cardiometabolic risk, so interventions can be directed effectively to reduce long-term morbidity and mortality. Funding: NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC-1215-20014); The Wellcome Trust (201486/Z/16/Z); Swiss National Research Foundation (320030-120686, 324730- 144064, and 320030-173211); The Carlos III Health Institute (CM20/00015, FIS00/3095, PI020499, PI050427, and PI060507); IDIVAL (INT/A21/10 and INT/A20/04); The Andalusian Regional Government (A1-0055-2020 and A1-0005-2021); SENY Fundacion Research (2005-0308007); Fundacion Marques de Valdecilla (A/02/07, API07/011); Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the European Fund for Regional Development (SAF2016-76046-R and SAF2013-46292-R).For the Spanish and French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Inflammation and Brain Structure in Schizophrenia and Other Neuropsychiatric Disorders: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Importance: Previous in vitro and postmortem research suggests that inflammation may lead to structural brain changes via activation of microglia and/or astrocytic dysfunction in a range of neuropsychiatric disorders. Objective: To investigate the relationship between inflammation and changes in brain structures in vivo and to explore a transcriptome-driven functional basis with relevance to mental illness. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used multistage linked analyses, including mendelian randomization (MR), gene expression correlation, and connectivity analyses. A total of 20 688 participants in the UK Biobank, which includes clinical, genomic, and neuroimaging data, and 6 postmortem brains from neurotypical individuals in the Allen Human Brain Atlas (AHBA), including RNA microarray data. Data were extracted in February 2021 and analyzed between March and October 2021. Exposures: Genetic variants regulating levels and activity of circulating interleukin 1 (IL-1), IL-2, IL-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) were used as exposures in MR analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: Brain imaging measures, including gray matter volume (GMV) and cortical thickness (CT), were used as outcomes. Associations were considered significant at a multiple testing-corrected threshold of P < 1.1 × 10-4. Differential gene expression in AHBA data was modeled in brain regions mapped to areas significant in MR analyses; genes were tested for biological and disease overrepresentation in annotation databases and for connectivity in protein-protein interaction networks. Results: Of 20 688 participants in the UK Biobank sample, 10 828 (52.3%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 55.5 (7.5) years. In the UK Biobank sample, genetically predicted levels of IL-6 were associated with GMV in the middle temporal cortex (z score, 5.76; P = 8.39 × 10-9), inferior temporal (z score, 3.38; P = 7.20 × 10-5), fusiform (z score, 4.70; P = 2.60 × 10-7), and frontal (z score, -3.59; P = 3.30 × 10-5) cortex together with CT in the superior frontal region (z score, -5.11; P = 3.22 × 10-7). No significant associations were found for IL-1, IL-2, CRP, or BDNF after correction for multiple comparison. In the AHBA sample, 5 of 6 participants (83%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 42.5 (13.4) years. Brain-wide coexpression analysis showed a highly interconnected network of genes preferentially expressed in the middle temporal gyrus (MTG), which further formed a highly connected protein-protein interaction network with IL-6 (enrichment test of expected vs observed network given the prevalence and degree of interactions in the STRING database: 43 nodes/30 edges observed vs 8 edges expected; mean node degree, 1.4; genome-wide significance, P = 4.54 × 10-9). MTG differentially expressed genes that were functionally enriched for biological processes in schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorder, and epilepsy. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, genetically determined IL-6 was associated with brain structure and potentially affects areas implicated in developmental neuropsychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia and autism.

Associations between Adverse Childhood Experiences and the novel inflammatory marker glycoprotein acetyls in two generations of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with increased risk of non-communicable diseases in adulthood, potentially mediated by chronic low-grade inflammation. Glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA) is a marker of chronic and cumulative inflammation. We investigated associations between ACEs and GlycA at different ages, in two generations of the population-based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort. METHODS: ALSPAC offspring's total ACE scores were generated for two age periods using prospectively collected data: 0-7y and 0-17y. GlycA was measured using high-resolution proton nuclear magnetic resonance at mean ages 8y, 18y, and 24y. Sample sizes ranged from: n = 5116 (8y) to n = 3085 (24y). ALSPAC mothers (n = 4634) retrospectively reported ACEs experienced before age 18y and GlycA was assessed at mean age 49y. We used multivariable linear regression to estimate associations between ACEs (total ACE score and individual ACEs) and subsequent GlycA in both samples, adjusting for key confounders. RESULTS: Mean GlycA levels were similar in offspring and mothers and over time. In offspring, there was no evidence that ACEs (total score or individual ACE) were associated with GlycA at age 8y or 18y, or 24y after adjustment for maternal age at birth and parity, maternal marital status, household occupational social class, maternal education, maternal smoking, own ethnicity, sex, and age in months. In mothers, there was evidence of a positive association between the total ACE score and GlycA at age 49y (adjusted mean difference 0.007 mmol/L; 95%CI: 0.003, 0.01). Emotional neglect was the only individual ACE associated with higher GlycA after adjusting for confounders and other ACEs. CONCLUSION: Results suggest the association between ACEs and GlycA may emerge in middle age. Future research should explore the extent to which inflammation in adulthood mediates well-documented associations between ACEs and adverse health outcomes in later life.

Associations of immunological proteins/traits with schizophrenia, major depression and bipolar disorder: A bi-directional two-sample mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and depression are associated with inflammation. However, it is unclear whether associations of immunological proteins/traits with these disorders are likely to be causal, or could be explained by reverse causality/residual confounding. METHODS: We used bi-directional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) and multi-variable MR (MVMR) analysis to examine evidence of causality, specificity and direction of association of 20 immunological proteins/traits (pro-inflammatory cytokines: interleukin (IL)-6, tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α, IL-12, IL-16, IL-17, IL-18; anti-inflammatory cytokines: IL-1 receptor antagonist (RA), IL-10, IL-13; chemokines: IL-8, monocyte chemo-attractant protein-1 (MCP-1); lymphoid growth-factors: soluble (s) IL-2Rα, IL-4, IL-7, IL-9; myeloid growth-factor: IL-5; acute phase protein: C-Reactive Protein (CRP); immune cells: neutrophils, lymphocytes; neurotrophic factor: brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF)) with schizophrenia, major depression and bipolar disorder. RESULTS: Genetically-predicted IL-6 was associated with increased risk of schizophrenia in univariable MR (OR = 1.24; 95% C.I., 1.05-1.47) and with major depression in MVMR (OR = 1.08; 95% C.I., 1.03-1.12). These results survived Bonferroni-correction. Genetically-predicted sIL-2Rα (OR = 1.07; 95% C.I., 1.01-1.12) and IL-9 (OR = 1.06; 95% C.I., 1.01-1.11) were associated with increased schizophrenia risk. Genetically-predicted BDNF (OR = 0.97; 95% C.I., 0.94-1.00) and MCP-1 (OR = 0.96; 95% C.I., 0.91-0.99) were associated with reduced schizophrenia risk. However, these findings did not survive correction for multiple testing. The CRP-schizophrenia association attenuated completely after taking into account IL-6 and sIL-2Rα in MVMR (OR = 1.02; 95% C.I., 0.81-1.28). No significant associations were observed for bipolar disorder. Evidence from bidirectional MR did not support reverse causality. CONCLUSIONS: We report evidence in support of potential causal associations of several immunological proteins/traits with schizophrenia, and of IL-6 with depression. Some of the findings did not survive correction for multiple testing and so replication in larger samples is required. Experimental studies are also required to further examine causality, mechanisms, and treatment potential for these immunological proteins/pathways for schizophrenia and depression.

Development and external validation of the Psychosis Metabolic Risk Calculator (PsyMetRiC): a cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithm for young people with psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Young people with psychosis are at high risk of developing cardiometabolic disorders; however, there is no suitable cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithm for this group. We aimed to develop and externally validate a cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithm for young people with psychosis. METHODS: We developed the Psychosis Metabolic Risk Calculator (PsyMetRiC) to predict up to 6-year risk of incident metabolic syndrome in young people (aged 16-35 years) with psychosis from commonly recorded information at baseline. We developed two PsyMetRiC versions using the forced entry method: a full model (including age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, smoking status, prescription of a metabolically active antipsychotic medication, HDL concentration, and triglyceride concentration) and a partial model excluding biochemical results. PsyMetRiC was developed using data from two UK psychosis early intervention services (Jan 1, 2013, to Nov 4, 2020) and externally validated in another UK early intervention service (Jan 1, 2012, to June 3, 2020). A sensitivity analysis was done in UK birth cohort participants (aged 18 years) who were at risk of developing psychosis. Algorithm performance was assessed primarily via discrimination (C statistic) and calibration (calibration plots). We did a decision curve analysis and produced an online data-visualisation app. FINDINGS: 651 patients were included in the development samples, 510 in the validation sample, and 505 in the sensitivity analysis sample. PsyMetRiC performed well at internal (full model: C 0·80, 95% CI 0·74-0·86; partial model: 0·79, 0·73-0·84) and external validation (full model: 0·75, 0·69-0·80; and partial model: 0·74, 0·67-0·79). Calibration of the full model was good, but there was evidence of slight miscalibration of the partial model. At a cutoff score of 0·18, in the full model PsyMetRiC improved net benefit by 7·95% (sensitivity 75%, 95% CI 66-82; specificity 74%, 71-78), equivalent to detecting an additional 47% of metabolic syndrome cases. INTERPRETATION: We have developed an age-appropriate algorithm to predict the risk of incident metabolic syndrome, a precursor of cardiometabolic morbidity and mortality, in young people with psychosis. PsyMetRiC has the potential to become a valuable resource for early intervention service clinicians and could enable personalised, informed health-care decisions regarding choice of antipsychotic medication and lifestyle interventions. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and Wellcome Trust.

Direction of association between Cardiovascular risk and depressive symptoms during the first 18 years of life: A prospective birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and depression are bidirectionally associated in adults. However, the direction of association between CVD risk and depressive symptoms in young people and potential mechanisms are poorly understood. METHODS: Using longitudinal birth cohort data, we created a CVD risk score age at 15 using age, ethnicity, physical activity, maternal social status, maternal smoking, own smoking, BMI, systolic blood pressure, LDL, HDL and triglycerides. We used regression analysis to test: (1) association between CVD risk score at age 15 and depressive symptoms at ages 12 and 18; (2) association of IL-6 and CRP at age 9 with depressive symptoms at age 12 and CVD risk score at age 15; and (3) mediating effects of CVD risk score on associations of IL-6/CRP at age 9 with depressive symptoms at age 18. RESULTS: The risk set comprised 5007 participants. CVD risk score in mid-adolescence was associated with depressive symptoms in early-adulthood (adjusted beta=0.06; standard error (SE)=0.02; p<0.001). Depressive symptoms in childhood were not associated with CVD risk score in mid-adolescence (adjusted beta=0.03; SE=0.02; p=0.11). Childhood inflammatory markers were associated with CVD risk score in mid-adolescence. Adolescent CVD risk score mediated the associations between childhood inflammatory markers and depressive symptoms in early-adulthood. LIMITATIONS: The cohort primarily comprises White individuals, limiting generalisability. Sample attrition required imputation for missing data. CONCLUSIONS: Association between CVD risk and depression in childhood/adolescence is unidirectional, with higher CVD risk increasing the risk of depressive symptoms. Childhood inflammation may increase risk of depression by influencing adolescent CVD risk.

Interleukin-6 as potential mediator of long-term neuropsychiatric symptoms of COVID-19.

The majority of COVID-19 survivors experience long-term neuropsychiatric symptoms such as fatigue, sleeping difficulties, depression and anxiety. We propose that neuroimmune cross-talk via inflammatory cytokines such as interleukin-6 (IL-6) could underpin these long-term COVID-19 symptoms. This hypothesis is supported by several lines of research, including population-based cohort and genetic Mendelian Randomisation studies suggesting that inflammation is associated with fatigue and sleeping difficulties, and that IL-6 could represent a possible causal driver for these symptoms. Immune activation following COVID-19 can disrupt T helper 17 (TH17) and regulatory T (Treg) cell responses, affect central learning and emotional processes, and lead to a vicious cycle of inflammation and mitochondrial dysfunction that amplifies the inflammatory process and results in immuno-metabolic constraints on neuronal energy metabolism, with fatigue being the ultimate result. Increased cytokine activity drives this process and could be targeted to interrupt it. Therefore, whether persistent IL-6 dysregulation contributes to COVID-19-related long-term fatigue, sleeping difficulties, depression, and anxiety, and whether targeting IL-6 pathways could be helpful for treatment and prevention of long COVID are important questions that require investigation. This line of research could inform new approaches for treatment and prevention of long-term neuropsychiatric symptoms of COVID-19. Effective treatment and prevention of this condition could also help to stem the anticipated rise in depression and other mental illnesses ensuing this pandemic.

Longitudinal association between CRP levels and risk of psychosis: a meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies.

Meta-analyses of cross-sectional studies suggest that patients with psychosis have higher circulating levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) compared with healthy controls; however, cause and effect is unclear. We examined the prospective association between CRP levels and subsequent risk of developing a psychotic disorder by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies. Databases were searched for prospective studies of CRP and psychosis. We obtained unpublished results, including adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, alcohol use, and socioeconomic status and suspected infection (CRP > 10 mg/L). Based on random effect meta-analysis of 89,792 participants (494 incident cases of psychosis at follow-up), the pooled odds ratio (OR) for psychosis for participants with high (>3 mg/L), as compared to low (≤3 mg/L) CRP levels at baseline was 1.50 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-2.07). Evidence for this association remained after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted OR [aOR] = 1.31; 95% CI, 1.03-1.66). After excluding participants with suspected infection, the OR for psychosis was 1.36 (95% CI, 1.06-1.74), but the association attenuated after controlling for confounders (aOR = 1.23; 95% CI, 0.95-1.60). Using CRP as a continuous variable, the pooled OR for psychosis per standard deviation increase in log(CRP) was 1.11 (95% CI, 0.93-1.34), and this association further attenuated after controlling for confounders (aOR = 1.07; 95% CI, 0.90-1.27) and excluding participants with suspected infection (aOR = 1.07; 95% CI, 0.92-1.24). There was no association using CRP as a categorical variable (low, medium or high). While we provide some evidence of a longitudinal association between high CRP (>3 mg/L) and psychosis, larger studies are required to enable definitive conclusions.

Polygenic risk for immuno-metabolic markers and specific depressive symptoms: A multi-sample network analysis study.

BACKGROUND: About every fourth patient with major depressive disorder (MDD) shows evidence of systemic inflammation. Previous studies have shown inflammation-depression associations of multiple serum inflammatory markers and multiple specific depressive symptoms. It remains unclear, however, if these associations extend to genetic/lifetime predisposition to higher inflammatory marker levels and what role metabolic factors such as Body Mass Index (BMI) play. It is also unclear whether inflammation-symptom associations reflect direct or indirect associations, which can be disentangled using network analysis. METHODS: This study examined associations of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for immuno-metabolic markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], interleukin [IL]-6, IL-10, tumour necrosis factor [TNF]-α, BMI) with seven depressive symptoms in one general population sample, the UK Biobank study (n = 110,010), and two patient samples, the Munich Antidepressant Response Signature (MARS, n = 1058) and Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D, n = 1143) studies. Network analysis was applied jointly for these samples using fused graphical least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (FGL) estimation as primary analysis and, individually, using unregularized model search estimation. Stability of results was assessed using bootstrapping and three consistency criteria were defined to appraise robustness and replicability of results across estimation methods, network bootstrapping, and samples. RESULTS: Network analysis results displayed to-be-expected PRS-PRS and symptom-symptom associations (termed edges), respectively, that were mostly positive. Using FGL estimation, results further suggested 28, 29, and six PRS-symptom edges in MARS, STAR*D, and UK Biobank samples, respectively. Unregularized model search estimation suggested three PRS-symptom edges in the UK Biobank sample. Applying our consistency criteria to these associations indicated that only the association of higher CRP PRS with greater changes in appetite fulfilled all three criteria. Four additional associations fulfilled at least two consistency criteria; specifically, higher CRP PRS was associated with greater fatigue and reduced anhedonia, higher TNF-α PRS was associated with greater fatigue, and higher BMI PRS with greater changes in appetite and anhedonia. Associations of the BMI PRS with anhedonia, however, showed an inconsistent valence across estimation methods. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic predisposition to higher systemic inflammatory markers are primarily associated with somatic/neurovegetative symptoms of depression such as changes in appetite and fatigue, consistent with previous studies based on circulating levels of inflammatory markers. We extend these findings by providing evidence that associations are direct (using network analysis) and extend to genetic predisposition to immuno-metabolic markers (using PRSs). Our findings can inform selection of patients with inflammation-related symptoms into clinical trials of immune-modulating drugs for MDD.

Longitudinal Trends in Childhood Insulin Levels and Body Mass Index and Associations With Risks of Psychosis and Depression in Young Adults.

Importance: Cardiometabolic disorders often occur concomitantly with psychosis and depression, contribute to high mortality rates, and are detectable from the onset of the psychiatric disorders. However, it is unclear whether longitudinal trends in cardiometabolic traits from childhood are associated with risks for adult psychosis and depression. Objective: To examine whether specific developmental trajectories of fasting insulin (FI) levels and body mass index (BMI) from early childhood were longitudinally associated with psychosis and depression in young adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cohort study from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a prospective study including a population-representative British cohort of 14 975 individuals, was conducted using data from participants aged 1 to 24 years. Body mass index and FI level data were used for growth mixture modeling to delineate developmental trajectories, and associations with psychosis and depression were assessed. The study was conducted between July 15, 2019, and March 24, 2020. Exposures: Fasting insulin levels were measured at 9, 15, 18, and 24 years, and BMI was measured at 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 18, and 24 years. Data on sex, race/ethnicity, paternal social class, childhood emotional and behavioral problems, and cumulative scores of sleep problems, average calorie intake, physical activity, smoking, and alcohol and substance use in childhood and adolescence were examined as potential confounders. Main Outcomes and Measures: Psychosis risk (definite psychotic experiences, psychotic disorder, at-risk mental state status, and negative symptom score) depression risk (measured using the computerized Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised) were assessed at 24 years. Results: From data available on 5790 participants (3132 [54.1%] female) for FI levels and data available on 10 463 participants (5336 [51.0%] female) for BMI, 3 distinct trajectories for FI levels and 5 distinct trajectories for BMI were noted, all of which were differentiated by mid-childhood. The persistently high FI level trajectory was associated with a psychosis at-risk mental state (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.01; 95% CI, 1.76-13.19) and psychotic disorder (aOR, 3.22; 95% CI, 1.29-8.02) but not depression (aOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.75-2.54). A puberty-onset major increase in BMI was associated with depression (aOR, 4.46; 95% CI, 2.38-9.87) but not psychosis (aOR, 1.98; 95% CI, 0.56-7.79). Conclusions and Relevance: The cardiometabolic comorbidity of psychosis and depression may have distinct, disorder-specific early-life origins. Disrupted insulin sensitivity could be a shared risk factor for comorbid cardiometabolic disorders and psychosis. A puberty-onset major increase in BMI could be a risk factor or risk indicator for adult depression. These markers may represent targets for prevention and treatment of cardiometabolic disorders in individuals with psychosis and depression.

Associations Between Maternal Prenatal C-Reactive Protein and Risk Factors for Psychosis in Adolescent Offspring: Findings From the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986.

Prenatal infection is associated with brain structural and functional abnormalities and may increase the risk for psychosis through a direct effect on neurodevelopment. Various infections may exert their effect through a proinflammatory immune response but studies of prenatal maternal inflammatory markers and offspring neurodevelopment are scarce. Using the longitudinal Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 study, we examined the associations of maternal prenatal C-reactive protein (CRP) levels with psychosis risk factors in adolescent offspring. CRP was measured in maternal sera collected in pregnancy. In offspring, school performance was measured at age 7 years, while school performance, psychotic experiences, and cannabis use were measured at age 16 years. We tested associations of CRP with offspring measures using regression analysis controlling for offspring sex, maternal education level, and prenatal maternal body mass index, smoking and alcohol use in pregnancy, place of birth, maternal psychiatric admission, paternal psychiatric admission, mothers age at birth, and gestational week of CRP sample. We also tested if adolescent cannabis use mediated the associations between maternal CRP and offspring outcomes. Controlling for covariates, maternal CRP was associated with academic performance at age 16 years (beta = .062, 95% CI = 0.036-0.088), but not with possible psychotic experiences at 16 years (odds ratio [OR] = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.96-1.24). Maternal CRP was also associated with adolescent cannabis use (OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.07-1.43). These findings suggest that prenatal inflammation may influence later mental illness risk by affecting neurodevelopment and also indirectly by increasing the risk of exposure to cannabis.

Depression in patients with spondyloarthritis: prevalence, incidence, risk factors, mechanisms and management.

Depression is a major neuropsychiatric disorder common in patients with rheumatological conditions including spondyloarthritis (SpA). It is associated with higher disease activity, functional impairment, poor treatment response and quality of life in patients with musculoskeletal disorders. Using ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) as examples, we have reviewed the evidence regarding the burden, risk factors, potential mechanisms and clinical management of depression in spondyloarthritis. The prevalence of depression is higher in patients with AS and PsA compared with the general population, with evidence of moderate/severe depression in about 15% of patients with AS or PsA. Mild depression is even more common and estimated to be present in about 40% of patients with AS. In addition to conventional risk factors such as stressful life events and socioeconomic deprivation, increased risk of depression in SpA may be associated with disease-related factors, such as disease activity, poor quality of life, fatigue, and sleep disturbances. Emerging evidence implicates inflammation in the aetiology of depression, which could also be a shared mechanism for depression and chronic inflammatory conditions such as AS and PsA. It is imperative for clinicians to actively assess and treat depression in SpA, as this could improve treatment adherence, quality of life, and overall long-term clinical and occupational outcomes. The use of validated tools can aid recognition and management of depression in rheumatology clinics. Management of depression in SpA, especially when to refer to specialist mental health services, are discussed.

Longitudinal associations between circulating interleukin-6 and C-reactive protein in childhood, and eating disorders and disordered eating in adolescence.

OBJECTIVE: Few studies have explored the association between inflammation and eating disorders and none used a longitudinal design. We investigated the association between serum-levels of interleukin 6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) measured in childhood and eating disorders and related behaviours and cognitions in adolescence in a large general population sample. METHODS: We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Our exposures were thirds of IL6 and CRP derived from serum measurements taken at age nine years, and outcomes were eating disorder diagnoses and self-reported disordered eating behaviours at ages 14, 16, and 18 years. We used univariable and multivariable multilevel logistic regression models adjusting for a number of potential confounders, including sex, fat mass, and pre-existing mental health difficulties. RESULTS: Our sample included 3480 children. Those in the top third of CRP had lower odds of binge eating (odds ratio(OR):0.62, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.39,1.00,p "equals" 0.05) and fasting (OR:0.63, 95% CI:0.38,1.07,p "equals" 0.09) after adjustment for confounders. We also observed weak associations of comparable magnitude for purging, anorexia nervosa, and bulimia nervosa. We did not find any associations between levels of IL6 and any of the outcomes under study. CONCLUSIONS: There was little evidence of an association between CRP and IL-6 and adolescent eating disorder outcomes. The inverse association observed between CRP and binge eating was unexpected, so caution is needed when interpreting it. One possible explanation is that higher CRP levels could have a protective role for disordered eating by affecting appetitive traits.

Cardiometabolic risk in young adults with depression and evidence of inflammation: A birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Young adults with depression and evidence of inflammation may represent a high-risk group for cardiometabolic disorders, but studies of cardiometabolic risk in this population are scarce. We aimed to examine: (1) the prevalence of low-grade inflammation in young-adults with depression; (2) cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between cardiometabolic risk factors and depression with or without evidence of inflammation. METHOD: The ALSPAC birth cohort participants were assessed for depression and serum high-sensitivity C-Reactive Protein (CRP) levels at age 18, alongside cardiometabolic measures (fasting insulin, fasting plasma glucose, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, smoking, alcohol intake) at age 18 years, and body mass index at ages 9, 13 and 18 years. Low-grade inflammation was defined as CRP>3 mg/L. Multinomial regression was used to examine associations of cardiometabolic markers with depression cases with and without evidence of inflammation. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine for interactions between depression, inflammation and cardiometabolic traits. RESULTS: Out of 2932 participants, 215 met ICD-10 criteria for depressive episode at age 18 years; 23 (10.7 %) had CRP>3 mg/L and 57 (26.5 %) had CRP 1-3 mg/L. Depressive episode with raised CRP (>3 mg/L) was associated with higher triglycerides (adjusted OR = 2.09; 95 % C.I., 1.35-3.24), higher BMI (adjusted OR = 1.13; 95 % C.I., 1.05-1.22) and insulin insensitivity (adjusted OR = 1.12; 95 % C.I., 1.01-1.26), and longitudinally with higher BMI at ages 9 (adjusted OR = 1.27; 95 % C.I., 1.10-1.48) and 13 (adjusted OR = 1.23; 95 % C.I., 1.09-1.38). There was evidence for interaction between BMI and CRP for the risk of depression at age 18 (adjusted OR for the interaction term = 1.56; 95 % C.I. 0.98-2.02) and between CRP and depressive symptoms for the risk of increased BMI at age 18 (adjusted ß for the interaction term = 0.05; 95 % C.I. 0.00-0.12). CONCLUSIONS: A notable proportion of young adults with depression have evidence of inflammation. These individuals are at increased risk of cardiometabolic disorders. Management of cardiometabolic risk in depressed individuals with evidence of inflammation should form part of routine clinical practice.